System Name:
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Xpected Winning Percentage
(XWP)
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Type:
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Predictive (Adv/Oth/Pre)
“Predicts the Future”
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Considers:
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Math:
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Iterative Poisson and Bayesian Analysis
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Description:
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Xpected Winning Percentage will rank teams in order of their current potential results, not what happened earlier in the season. Yet it uses the same fundamental principle as RWP, which is projecting the remaining hypothetical head-to-head matches. Thus XWP is strictly a predictive system, and overall team ratings are computed by rating each team’s core abilities: Offensive Strength coupled with Defensive Weakness and then comparing results. The system uses prior season data and as time passes will diminish the importance of earlier games. Also, it will adjust for game blowouts and is capable of compensating team strengths for both home advantage and division/conference affiliation.
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Ranking and Rating Systems coded by Patrick Laffaye.
Special thanks to:
Kenneth Massey for hosting the Ranking Comparison website…
David Wilson for providing system descriptions…
Peter Wolfe for providing game score data…
